Harborough Townvs
Hereford
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 9/8/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hereford · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Harborough Town 0-3 Hereford
Original prediction
Hereford
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 46.9% | 33.4% | -13.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.63 | 25.0% | 26.9% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 3.23 | 28.1% | 39.7% | 11.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Hereford
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
Hereford has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40