Hapoel Umm al-Fahmvs
Ironi Baka El Garbiya
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Alef · 9/19/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ironi Baka El Garbiya · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3-3 Ironi Baka El Garbiya
Original prediction
Ironi Baka El Garbiya
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 41.8% | 33.0% | -8.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.26 | 27.3% | 29.1% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.87 | 30.9% | 37.9% | 7.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.26 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Ironi Baka El Garbiya
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Ironi Baka El Garbiya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 0 · GA 6 · avg 0.00/1.20