Hapoel Umm al-Fahmvs
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Alef · 10/1/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 0-0 Hapoel Ironi Karmiel
Original prediction
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.95 | 30.3% | 35.8% | 5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.3% | 28.7% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 2.06 | 43.3% | 35.5% | -7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.40 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Probability
35.8%
Model confidence
35.8%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00