Hapoel Umm al-Fahmvs
FC Shefa-Amr
COMPLETEDIsrael · State Cup · 10/13/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3-2 FC Shefa-Amr
Original prediction
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.62 | 55.7% | 42.5% | -13.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.11 | 22.0% | 27.2% | 5.1 pts |
| Away | 4.06 | 22.3% | 30.3% | 8.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.62 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00