Hapoel Tel Avivvs
Ironi Tiberias
COMPLETEDIsrael · Ligat Ha'al · 10/17/2026, 3:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Tel Aviv · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Tel Aviv 1-0 Ironi Tiberias
Original prediction
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.21 | 76.2% | 68.8% | -7.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.99 | 15.4% | 18.1% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 10.91 | 8.4% | 13.1% | 4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.3–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Probability
68.8%
Model confidence
68.8%
Hapoel Tel Aviv has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00