Hapoel Tel Avivvs
Beitar Jerusalem
COMPLETEDIsrael · Ligat Ha'al · 9/3/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Tel Aviv · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Tel Aviv 3-0 Beitar Jerusalem
Original prediction
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.39 | 38.3% | 42.2% | 3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 27.1% | 27.6% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.64 | 34.6% | 30.2% | -4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Hapoel Tel Aviv has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
GF 9 · GA 13 · avg 1.80/2.60