Hapoel Sderotvs
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Alef · 9/9/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Sderot · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Sderot 1-2 Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
Original prediction
Hapoel Sderot
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.81 | 50.1% | 45.4% | -4.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 26.2% | 28.5% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 3.85 | 23.6% | 26.2% | 2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Sderot
Probability
45.4%
Model confidence
45.4%
Hapoel Sderot has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 1 · avg 4.00/1.00
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40