Hapoel Sderotvs
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
COMPLETEDIsrael · State Cup · 10/26/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Sderot · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Sderot 2-3 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Original prediction
Hapoel Sderot
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 16 October 2026 at 07:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.72 | 32.6% | 42.3% | 9.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 26.1% | 26.1% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 2.15 | 41.3% | 31.6% | -9.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Sderot
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
Hapoel Sderot has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00