Hapoel Petah Tikvavs
Beitar Jerusalem
COMPLETEDIsrael · Ligat Ha'al · 10/25/2026, 6:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Beitar Jerusalem · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (13%), 0-2 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Petah Tikva 0-1 Beitar Jerusalem
Original prediction
Beitar Jerusalem
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.47 | 14.1% | 22.1% | 7.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.47 | 20.4% | 25.0% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 1.40 | 65.5% | 53.0% | -12.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.40 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–211%
Predicted outcome
Beitar Jerusalem
Probability
53.0%
Model confidence
53.0%
Beitar Jerusalem has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.40/2.00
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40