Hapoel Nazareth Illitvs
Tzeirey Tamra
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Alef · 9/30/2026, 4:55:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Nazareth Illit · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2-3 Tzeirey Tamra
Original prediction
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.16 | 77.7% | 55.7% | -22.0 pts |
| Draw | 5.94 | 15.1% | 23.3% | 8.2 pts |
| Away | 12.51 | 7.2% | 21.1% | 13.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-22.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Probability
55.7%
Model confidence
55.7%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 4 · GA 14 · avg 0.80/2.80