Hapoel Nazareth Illitvs
Hapoel Bnei Musmus
COMPLETEDIsrael · State Cup · 10/12/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Nazareth Illit · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 4-0 Hapoel Bnei Musmus
Original prediction
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.62 | 55.0% | 42.8% | -12.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 25.1% | 27.3% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 4.46 | 20.0% | 29.9% | 10.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.62 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Probability
42.8%
Model confidence
42.8%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20