Hapoel Migdal HaEmekvs
Tzeirey Tamra
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Alef · 10/8/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 1-0 Tzeirey Tamra
Original prediction
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 06:34 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 66.6% | 53.1% | -13.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.55 | 19.8% | 23.6% | 3.8 pts |
| Away | 6.58 | 13.7% | 23.3% | 9.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
Probability
53.1%
Model confidence
53.1%
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
GF 7 · GA 14 · avg 1.40/2.80