Hapoel Migdal HaEmekvs
Ironi Baka El Garbiya
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Alef · 10/23/2026, 8:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 2-1 Ironi Baka El Garbiya
Original prediction
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 18:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.81 | 49.8% | 50.2% | 0.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 24.7% | 23.7% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 3.52 | 25.6% | 26.1% | 0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.81 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
Probability
50.2%
Model confidence
50.2%
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80