Hapoel Migdal HaEmekvs
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Alef · 9/24/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 2-3 Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Original prediction
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.81 | 31.9% | 39.9% | 8.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 27.8% | 27.7% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.23 | 40.3% | 32.5% | -7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60