Hapoel Marmorekvs
Maccabi Ashdod
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Alef · 10/8/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Marmorek · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Marmorek 1-1 Maccabi Ashdod
Original prediction
Hapoel Marmorek
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 06:34 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.21 | 40.3% | 39.5% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.13 | 28.5% | 28.5% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 2.86 | 31.2% | 32.0% | 0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.13 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Marmorek
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Hapoel Marmorek has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20