Hapoel Mahane Yehudavs
Hapoel Sderot
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Alef · 9/17/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Sderot · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 0-1 Hapoel Sderot
Original prediction
Hapoel Sderot
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.95 | 22.7% | 34.3% | 11.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 26.7% | 28.3% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 1.77 | 50.6% | 37.4% | -13.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Sderot
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Hapoel Sderot has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 2.50/1.50