Hapoel Kfar Sabavs
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Leumit · 9/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maccabi Kiryat Gat · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Kfar Saba 2-0 Maccabi Kiryat Gat
Original prediction
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 40.8% | 30.9% | -9.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.3% | 26.2% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.86 | 31.9% | 42.8% | 11.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
Probability
42.8%
Model confidence
42.8%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 14 · avg 1.20/2.80
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00