Hapoel Kfar Sabavs
Ashdod
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Leumit · 10/12/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ashdod · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-3 (12%), 0-2 (11%), 0-4 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Kfar Saba 2-4 Ashdod
Original prediction
Ashdod
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.34 | 16.8% | 10.0% | -6.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.17 | 21.5% | 14.6% | -6.9 pts |
| Away | 1.45 | 61.7% | 75.5% | 13.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.45 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–312%
- 2.0–211%
- 3.0–410%
Predicted outcome
Ashdod
Probability
75.5%
Model confidence
75.5%
Ashdod has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Hapoel Kfar SabaLLLWL
GF 6 · GA 14 · avg 1.20/2.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AshdodWWWWW
GF 15 · GA 3 · avg 3.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Hapoel Kfar SabaAshdod
37.5Attack75.0
16.7Defence75.0
25.0Form87.5
29.1Power78.9
0.70xG3.27