Hapoel Katamonvs
Maccabi Haifa
COMPLETEDIsrael · Ligat Ha'al · 10/12/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maccabi Haifa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Katamon 1-4 Maccabi Haifa
Original prediction
Maccabi Haifa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.76 | 19.2% | 28.1% | 8.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.02 | 22.8% | 22.3% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 1.58 | 58.0% | 49.6% | -8.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.58 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Maccabi Haifa
Probability
49.6%
Model confidence
49.6%
Maccabi Haifa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 12 · avg 2.40/2.40
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40