Hapoel Ironi Karmielvs
Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Alef · 10/8/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 1-0 Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel
Original prediction
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 06:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.40 | 64.2% | 40.6% | -23.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.10 | 21.9% | 27.0% | 5.1 pts |
| Away | 6.40 | 14.0% | 32.4% | 18.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.40 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-23.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
40.6%
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20