Hapoel Ironi Karmielvs
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Alef · 10/23/2026, 10:25:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 3-3 Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Original prediction
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 18:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.31 | 38.5% | 43.2% | 4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 27.7% | 27.0% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.64 | 33.8% | 29.8% | -3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.22 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
43.2%
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40