Hapoel Ironi Arrabavs
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Alef · 9/30/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Ironi Arraba 1-1 Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
Original prediction
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 13.36 | 6.8% | 23.1% | 16.3 pts |
| Draw | 6.08 | 15.0% | 23.0% | 8.0 pts |
| Away | 1.16 | 78.2% | 53.9% | -24.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 5.08 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-24.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
Probability
53.9%
Model confidence
53.9%
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 14 · avg 0.60/2.80
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40