Hapoel Haderavs
Maccabi Ashdod
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Alef · 9/24/2026, 5:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Hadera · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Hadera 1-1 Maccabi Ashdod
Original prediction
Hapoel Hadera
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 51.2% | 39.9% | -11.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 25.8% | 27.5% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.87 | 23.0% | 32.6% | 9.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.44 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Hadera
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Hapoel Hadera has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80