Hapoel Bnei Musmusvs
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Alef · 9/30/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Bnei Musmus 1-0 Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
Original prediction
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.19 | 21.4% | 31.1% | 9.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.92 | 22.8% | 26.8% | 4.0 pts |
| Away | 1.60 | 55.8% | 42.1% | -13.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20