Hapoel Beit Sheanvs
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Alef · 10/16/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Beit Shean · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Beit Shean 1-1 Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Original prediction
Hapoel Beit Shean
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.19 | 27.9% | 39.9% | 12.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 27.5% | 26.4% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 1.99 | 44.7% | 33.7% | -11.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.24 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Beit Shean
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Hapoel Beit Shean has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20