Hapoel Beer Shevavs
Maccabi Tel Aviv
COMPLETEDIsrael · Ligat Ha'al · 9/7/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Beer Sheva · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-4 Maccabi Tel Aviv
Original prediction
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.33 | 39.2% | 36.8% | -2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 26.8% | 26.8% | -0.0 pts |
| Away | 2.69 | 34.0% | 36.4% | 2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Probability
36.8%
Model confidence
36.8%
Hapoel Beer Sheva has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 13 · avg 1.60/2.60
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20