Hapoel Beer Shevavs
Hapoel Katamon
COMPLETEDIsrael · Ligat Ha'al · 10/18/2026, 5:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Beer Sheva · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Beer Sheva 2-1 Hapoel Katamon
Original prediction
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.32 | 69.6% | 59.4% | -10.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.90 | 18.7% | 20.2% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 7.85 | 11.7% | 20.4% | 8.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.32 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Probability
59.4%
Model confidence
59.4%
Hapoel Beer Sheva has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
GF 11 · GA 11 · avg 2.20/2.20