Hapoel Afulavs
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Leumit · 9/6/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Afula · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Afula 0-1 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Original prediction
Hapoel Afula
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.21 | 40.4% | 53.6% | 13.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 27.1% | 23.6% | -3.5 pts |
| Away | 2.75 | 32.5% | 22.7% | -9.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Afula
Probability
53.6%
Model confidence
53.6%
Hapoel Afula has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40