Hapoel Afulavs
Maccabi Herzliya
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Leumit · 10/16/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Afula · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Afula 0-0 Maccabi Herzliya
Original prediction
Hapoel Afula
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 39.9% | 59.7% | 19.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 27.9% | 21.2% | -6.7 pts |
| Away | 2.79 | 32.2% | 19.1% | -13.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.22 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
19.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Afula
Probability
59.7%
Model confidence
59.7%
Hapoel Afula has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40