Hapoel Afulavs
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Leumit · 10/1/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Rishon LeZion · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Afula 2-2 Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Original prediction
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.90 | 30.8% | 34.4% | 3.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 25.9% | 24.7% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.07 | 43.3% | 40.9% | -2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.45 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Probability
40.9%
Model confidence
40.9%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20