Hapoel Afulavs
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Leumit · 9/17/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Afula · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hapoel Afula 3-3 Hapoel Kfar Shalem
Original prediction
Hapoel Afula
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.45 | 36.5% | 47.4% | 10.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 26.6% | 23.6% | -3.0 pts |
| Away | 2.43 | 36.9% | 29.0% | -7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.36 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Afula
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Hapoel Afula has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40