Hanwell Townvs
Dover
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hanwell Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hanwell Town 1-2 Dover
Original prediction
Hanwell Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.74 | 33.1% | 37.4% | 4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.70 | 24.5% | 27.5% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 2.14 | 42.4% | 35.1% | -7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Hanwell Town
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Hanwell Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00