Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd
Friday, 24 July 2026Last updated 12:35
Hankofen-Hailing

Hankofen-Hailing

Home
L
20
Full time
Ismaning

Ismaning

Away
L
GoalVio prediction
39% confidence
Hankofen-Hailing(32%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Win probability
Hankofen-Hailing
32%
Draw
29%
Ismaning
39%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Hankofen-Hailing
9
Ismaning
34
Defence
Hankofen-Hailing
6
Ismaning
0
Momentum
Hankofen-Hailing
0
Ismaning
0
Danger (xG)
Hankofen-Hailing
0.00
Ismaning
0.90
Both teams to score
Yes

The model projects 2.03 xG for Hankofen-Hailing and 1.11 xG for Ismaning — strong and meaningful attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 2-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. Even with Hankofen-Hailing holding the stronger xG profile, the opposition's meaningful attacking output is sufficient to keep BTTS in play.The attack-versus-defence matchup supports both teams scoring. Hankofen-Hailing's Attack Score (9) exceeds Ismaning's Defensive Stability (0), and Ismaning's attack (34) similarly tests Hankofen-Hailing's defence (6). Neither backline is dominant enough to prevent the other side from scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
Yes

The model projects a combined xG of 3.14 — elevated attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 2-1 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. With both sides generating elevated xG, multiple scoreline combinations in the probability grid exceed 2.5 goals.The attack-versus-defence matchups across both ends of the pitch favour the attackers. Hankofen-Hailing's Attack Score (9) vs Ismaning's Defensive Stability (0) and Ismaning's attack (34) vs Hankofen-Hailing's defence (6) both point to a goal-friendly environment — neither defence is strong enough to suppress the other side's attacking output.

xG for (Hankofen-Hailing)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (Ismaning)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Hankofen-Hailing)
2.70
avg per match
xG against (Ismaning)
4.50
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Hankofen-HailingHankofen-Hailing
LD
IsmaningIsmaning
L

Probability breakdown

39% confidence
Hankofen-Hailing32%
Draw29%
Ismaning39%

Ismaning leads with 39% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Hankofen-Hailing Backed to Win — Model Projects 2-1

Hankofen-Hailing host Ismaning in Oberliga - Bayern Süd. Hankofen-Hailing have recorded LDLDLW in recent matches while Ismaning arrive with a run of WWWLDL.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 2.03 expected goals for Hankofen-Hailing against 1.11 for Ismaning — a significant advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Hankofen-Hailing's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 57% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: ⚠️ Upset Risk Ismaning have won 3 of their last 10 matches — a run of form that keeps this fixture competitive. While Hankofen-Hailing carry the stronger underlying metrics, Ismaning's recent results mean the gap is narrower than the headline verdict implies.

Why GoalVio backs this

Hankofen-Hailing are generating a commanding xG advantage — 2.03 projected against 1.11 for Ismaning. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 0.92 is the clearest signal in the model that Hankofen-Hailing are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: Ismaning have won 3 of their last 10 matches — a run of form the model acknowledges but cannot fully override. If Ismaning carry that momentum into this fixture and score first, the upset probability rises significantly above what the headline verdict suggests.

Risk factors

  • Ismaning are in decent form with 3 wins from their last 10 matches — an upset cannot be ruled out.
  • Hankofen-Hailing have been conceding 2.00 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
  • With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.

Recent form

Hankofen-Hailing

Hankofen-Hailing

L
@ Erlbach
16 Jul 2026
03
D
@ Nürnberg II
16 May 2026
22
Ismaning

Ismaning

L
@ 1860 München II
16 May 2026
15

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Hankofen-Hailing vs Ismaning?

GoalVio's model predicts Hankofen-Hailing to win with 39% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Hankofen-Hailing vs Ismaning?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Hankofen-Hailing vs Ismaning?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Hankofen-Hailing vs Ismaning?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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