Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Haninge · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-1 (7%), 1-1 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Haninge 2-1 Smedby
Original prediction
Haninge
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 18:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.51 | 59.7% | 45.2% | -14.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.29 | 21.0% | 24.6% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 4.69 | 19.2% | 30.2% | 11.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.51 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.1–16%
Predicted outcome
Haninge
Probability
45.2%
Model confidence
45.2%
Haninge has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HaningeWLLLW
GF 13 · GA 16 · avg 2.60/3.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
SmedbyLLDWD
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
HaningeSmedby
81.8Attack59.1
36.4Defence54.5
59.1Form53.0
57.6Power55.5
2.47xG2.09