Haningevs
Nacka Iliria
COMPLETEDSweden · Division 2 - Södra Svealand · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Haninge · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 4-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Haninge 4-5 Nacka Iliria
Original prediction
Haninge
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 16:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.50 | 60.4% | 57.0% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.48 | 20.2% | 22.0% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 4.65 | 19.4% | 21.0% | 1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.4–18%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Haninge
Probability
57.0%
Model confidence
57.0%
Haninge has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 16 · avg 2.00/3.20
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40