Hangzhou Greentownvs
SHANGHAI SIPG
COMPLETEDChina · Super League · 10/9/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
SHANGHAI SIPG · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hangzhou Greentown 2-4 SHANGHAI SIPG
Original prediction
SHANGHAI SIPG
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 21:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.46 | 37.6% | 37.5% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.84 | 24.1% | 24.4% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.42 | 38.3% | 38.1% | -0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.42 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG
Probability
38.1%
Model confidence
38.1%
SHANGHAI SIPG has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00