Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fernwald · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Hanau 93 are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LWWDD), averaging 2.40 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Fernwald are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Fernwald hold a 10.2-point power-rating edge (38.7 v 48.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.0% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Fernwald holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 74% BTTS chance and 74% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Fernwald
Probability
45.0%
Model confidence
45.0%
Fernwald has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 11 · avg 2.40/2.20
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80