Hamrun Spartansvs
Marsaxlokk
COMPLETEDMalta · Premier League · 9/18/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marsaxlokk · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hamrun Spartans 4-1 Marsaxlokk
Original prediction
Marsaxlokk
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 49.1% | 34.2% | -14.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 25.9% | 27.3% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 3.61 | 25.0% | 38.4% | 13.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Marsaxlokk
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Marsaxlokk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00