Hamrun Spartansvs
Hibernians
COMPLETEDMalta · Premier League · 10/11/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hamrun Spartans · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Hamrun Spartans 1-0 Hibernians, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Hamrun Spartans 2-2 Hibernians
Original prediction
Hamrun Spartans
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 58.8% | 56.9% | -1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.92 | 23.1% | 24.6% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 5.01 | 18.1% | 18.4% | 0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.92 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.9 pts
Projected Score
Hamrun Spartans 1–0 Hibernians
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Hamrun Spartans
Probability
56.9%
Model confidence
56.9%
Hamrun Spartans has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80