Hamrun Spartansvs
Floriana
COMPLETEDMalta · Premier League · 8/29/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Floriana · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hamrun Spartans 1-1 Floriana
Original prediction
Floriana
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.94 | 47.1% | 32.3% | -14.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 28.4% | 27.8% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 3.73 | 24.5% | 39.9% | 15.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.21 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Floriana
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Floriana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60