Hamrun Spartansvs
Balzan FC
COMPLETEDMalta · Premier League · 10/21/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hamrun Spartans · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hamrun Spartans 1-1 Balzan FC
Original prediction
Hamrun Spartans
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 52.0% | 45.7% | -6.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 26.1% | 26.1% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 4.13 | 21.9% | 28.2% | 6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.47 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Hamrun Spartans
Probability
45.7%
Model confidence
45.7%
Hamrun Spartans has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00