Hamilton Academicalvs
Queen of the South
COMPLETEDScotland · League One · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hamilton Academical · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (14%), 2-0 (13%), 4-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hamilton Academical 4-1 Queen of the South
Original prediction
Hamilton Academical
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.28 | 71.5% | 75.1% | 3.6 pts |
| Draw | 5.04 | 18.1% | 15.1% | -3.1 pts |
| Away | 8.80 | 10.4% | 9.8% | -0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–014%
- 2.2–013%
- 3.4–011%
Predicted outcome
Hamilton Academical
Probability
75.1%
Model confidence
75.1%
Hamilton Academical has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 1 · avg 1.20/0.20
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60