Hamburger SVvs
VfB Stuttgart
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 10/17/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
VfB Stuttgart · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hamburger SV 1-0 VfB Stuttgart
Original prediction
VfB Stuttgart
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.99 | 23.8% | 28.3% | 4.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.06 | 23.3% | 23.1% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 1.79 | 52.9% | 48.6% | -4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
VfB Stuttgart
Probability
48.6%
Model confidence
48.6%
VfB Stuttgart has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60
GF 13 · GA 1 · avg 2.60/0.20