Hamburger SVvs
FSV Mainz 05
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 9/6/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FSV Mainz 05 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hamburger SV 0-5 FSV Mainz 05
Original prediction
FSV Mainz 05
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.84 | 33.4% | 34.4% | 1.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 27.4% | 27.3% | -0.0 pts |
| Away | 2.42 | 39.2% | 38.3% | -1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.42 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
FSV Mainz 05
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
FSV Mainz 05 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 18 · GA 4 · avg 3.60/0.80