Hamburger SVvs
1. FC Köln
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 9/19/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
1. FC Köln · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hamburger SV 2-1 1. FC Köln
Original prediction
1. FC Köln
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.66 | 35.5% | 32.6% | -2.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 26.4% | 24.9% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.48 | 38.1% | 42.5% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
1. FC Köln
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
1. FC Köln has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80