Hamburger SV IIvs
St. Pauli II
COMPLETEDGermany · Regionalliga - Nord · 9/16/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
St. Pauli II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-3 (7%), 1-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hamburger SV II 0-3 St. Pauli II
Original prediction
St. Pauli II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.26 | 40.0% | 33.4% | -6.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.56 | 25.4% | 20.3% | -5.0 pts |
| Away | 2.61 | 34.6% | 46.3% | 11.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–37%
- 3.1–26%
Predicted outcome
St. Pauli II
Probability
46.3%
Model confidence
46.3%
St. Pauli II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 13 · GA 9 · avg 2.60/1.80