Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Molde · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 1-3 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ham-Kam 1-5 Molde
Original prediction
Molde
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.32 | 21.6% | 22.1% | 0.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.17 | 22.3% | 19.0% | -3.4 pts |
| Away | 1.66 | 56.1% | 58.9% | 2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.1–38%
Predicted outcome
Molde
Probability
58.9%
Model confidence
58.9%
Molde has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Ham-KamLDLDW
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
MoldeWWWLD
GF 13 · GA 10 · avg 2.60/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Ham-KamMolde
45.6Attack66.7
36.8Defence49.1
40.4Form57.9
42.2Power58.7
1.44xG2.44