Halesowen Townvs
Alvechurch
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Southern Central · 10/13/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alvechurch · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Halesowen Town 1-1 Alvechurch
Original prediction
Alvechurch
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.68 | 33.4% | 24.1% | -9.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.09 | 29.0% | 26.8% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.38 | 37.6% | 49.1% | 11.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.09 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Alvechurch
Probability
49.1%
Model confidence
49.1%
Alvechurch has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20