Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Haka · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Haka 3-0 PK-35
Original prediction
Haka
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 18:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.99 | 45.6% | 37.1% | -8.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.0% | 27.5% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 3.19 | 28.4% | 35.4% | 6.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.99 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Haka
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
Haka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HakaLLWDL
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
PK-35DLWDW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
HakaPK-35
62.7Attack54.7
61.3Defence76.0
58.7Form65.3
61.1Power65.1
1.10xG1.18