Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Haka · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (15%), 1-0 (11%), 3-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Haka 0-2 MP
Original prediction
Haka
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.30 | 69.9% | 75.2% | 5.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.96 | 18.3% | 16.0% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 7.66 | 11.8% | 8.8% | -3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–015%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.3–011%
Predicted outcome
Haka
Probability
75.2%
Model confidence
75.2%
Haka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HakaLWWWW
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
MPLLLLW
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
HakaMP
65.1Attack34.9
65.1Defence47.6
63.5Form33.3
64.6Power41.4
2.37xG0.63